This article, which is saying that the growth of the urban population is getting bigger from now on, definitely helps you understand the demographics and the impact easily.
Urbanisation is the most essential issue for a population theory.
(Sorry, this article is written by Japanese)
A few years ago, I saw a data, which said that the world urban ratio had reached 51% and it was expected that the ratio would increase up to 70% within next forty years. Well, it is said that the world population will increase to ten billion by 2050. So if all the facts are true, it can be said that the urban population will be seven billions by 2050 as well, which is almost the same number as the current world population.
Since the current ratio of the urban population to the rural population is 1 to 1, the number of the urban population and the rural population is the same, which is 3.5 billion for each. In short, the current fact, which is that one farmer raises and provides food just for one urban person, will be changed in the future since the urban population will be seven billion and the rural population will be 3.5 billion within next forty years. Under this expectation, one farmer has to raise and provide food for more than two urban persons. .
Well, it is a little bit different story, but since I came to a developing country and started to observe the local farmers, I have realized a very simple fact, which is that there are only a few people who choose to be and work as a farmer here. They were born in this little farm village by chance and they raise some plants with their traditional but old way because there are no different choices in their life at all. Or it can be said that they just farm because all their neighbors do. Their life, which is just a little better than living off the land, is a real and typical farmer’s life in this developing country. What they do is not an “agriculture business”, it is just a part of “housework” to live, which is the same as cleaning and doing laundry.
As we want to finish cleaning and laundry easily, they also want to get their housework, “growing plants”, done easily and quickly. Therefore, even how often Non-Government Organizations send volunteers and how hard they teach agriculture to the locals, the efforts of the volunteers just ends up fruitlessly. The volunteers, who don’t mind how long or how hard they work, try to teach and train the locals to produce something better. However, on the other hand, what the locals want is knowledge how they can grow plants without any single effort.
Well, let’s say there is one young guy, who cooks without any interests. He just cooks because he needs to live. Would you call him a chef? I would not. We should not call him a chef, we should not send a professional chef to teach him how to cook as well. For him, sending a professional brings nothing at all because he just doesn’t want to cook. When you think about an agriculture business in a developing country, just remember this example because it probably helps you a lot (lol).
Anyway, for that reason, the most of “people who are categorized as farmers” in a rural area don’t want to do agriculture. They tend to choose an urban life if they could earn money more easily and have a better life. On the other hand, the ratio of people who choose to be and work as a farmer will be higher among the people who stay in a farm area. For the people who decide to risk his/her life as a professional farmer, the agricultural market will be automatically twice as big as the current one in next forty years. Of course, the impact of the food consumption of the people who live off the land and the people who enjoy the urban life is a different level. Therefore, it can be said that the actual expand of the agricultural market could be more than twice as the current one.
So…, while developing AGRIBUDDY, I am recently thinking that having a partnership with “the people who have chosen to be a professional farmer” is a right way to build an agricultural business here… well, let’s wait and see how it goes.